A Wall of Contracts
Data from Deribit, which clears more than 80% of global crypto options, shows a dense cluster of open interest between $110,000 and $115,000. Dealers call this “the ladder” — a zone where hedging flows concentrate and can effectively anchor spot prices.
The max pain level — where the most contracts expire worthless — has shifted from $114,000 earlier in September down toward $110,000, according to figures from Greeks.live. The slide reflects how traders added downside protection after Bitcoin failed to sustain levels above $117,000 in mid-September.
“This expiry is massive by any measure,” said Richard Galvin, co-founder at Digital Asset Capital Management. “When you have billions clustered around tight strikes, it can either pin the market in place or spark sharp dislocations if spot breaks out.”
Bulls and Bears Draw Their Lines
The battle lines are clear:
- Bulls want Bitcoin above $112,000. If spot pushes toward $115,000, dealers short call options may be forced to buy BTC to hedge, potentially igniting a gamma squeeze — a mechanic that can turn steady rallies into vertical moves.
- Bears are defending the $110,000 shelf. A settlement below that threshold leaves thousands of puts in the money and could trigger sell-side hedging flows into the weekend.
“Below $110K, you don’t just have technical damage,” said Adrian Przelozny, CEO of Independent Reserve in Singapore. “You have mechanical pressure from options desks, and that can cascade quickly.”
Lessons From Past Mega-Expiries
History suggests these moments matter. In late August, more than $14 billion in BTC and ETH options expired in a single day. Prices initially gravitated toward the max pain level before drifting higher as hedging flows unwound.
“The pattern is often the same,” noted Genesis Trading’s derivatives desk in a recent client note. “Volatility collapses into the close, then spot trades more freely once gamma rolls off.” Traders will be watching closely to see if the script repeats.
Scenarios Traders Are Watching
- Above $112K → Bullish squeeze
- A reclaim and hold above $112,000 could spark dealer buy-backs, amplifying upside momentum toward $115,000.
- Pinned near $110K–$112K → Volatility crush
- If Bitcoin grinds sideways in the ladder, most contracts expire quietly, implied volatility collapses, and the weekend opens calm.
- Below $110K → Bearish cascade
- A decisive break under $110,000 risks forcing options desks into sell-side flows, emboldening short sellers into October.
Why This Expiry Matters
The timing amplifies the stakes. Just days ago, more than $1.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across futures markets, rattling sentiment. Now, fragile liquidity, concentrated strikes, and geopolitical uncertainty collide in a single event.
“It’s a powder keg,” said Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer at Yield App. “Positioning is tight, liquidity is thin, and macro signals are all over the place. The expiry could be the spark.”
Bitcoin’s $17B expiry is more than a technical milestone. It is a stress test of conviction: hold above $112,000, and bulls may engineer a post-expiry squeeze. Slip below $110,000, and cascading hedges could accelerate a correction.
For traders, the roadmap is clear. In a week defined by derivatives, the market has already drawn its own battle lines — and $110K is the line between order and chaos.