Gemini has lifted the price range for its initial public offering to $24–$26 per share, aiming to raise about $433 million at a valuation above $3 billion. In a high-profile show of confidence, Nasdaq has agreed to invest $50 million in a private placement alongside the deal. If completed, Gemini would become the third U.S.-listed pure-play crypto exchange, following Coinbase and Bullish, signaling that exchange equities are once again seen as investable assets.
Why the Range Went Up
Bankers rarely raise IPO ranges without firm demand. Several factors underpin the move. First, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to permit in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products has lowered friction for authorized participants. This shift improved secondary-market spreads and hedging costs, feeding through into confidence around exchanges—the toll-booths of liquidity.
Second, the approval of spot Ether ETFs last year extended investor access beyond Bitcoin and normalized crypto investment on mainstream wealth platforms. With more regulated on-ramps functioning smoothly, exchange revenues look less volatile and more sustainable than in the immediate post-FTX years.
Finally, broader equity markets have warmed to fintech and digital-asset listings. Gemini’s upsized terms arrive in the middle of a rally for high-growth financial platforms, creating a favorable backdrop.
What Sets Gemini Apart
Two structural features make this listing stand out.
Strategic alignment with Nasdaq. The exchange’s $50 million private placement in Gemini’s stock is unusual and highlights a deeper partnership around custody, collateral management, and trading infrastructure. It also provides a vote of confidence that institutional investors will note.
A large retail carve-out. Up to 30 percent of Class A shares are reportedly earmarked for retail allocation via brokerage platforms. That is atypical for technology IPOs and ensures a wide base of individual investors from day one. Analysts suggest this may enhance liquidity and reduce concentration risk among institutional funds.
The Exchange Basket Trade: COIN, BULL, Soon GEMI
Investors now have the beginnings of an “exchange basket” in public markets. Coinbase, Bullish, and soon Gemini offer three different approaches to capturing crypto trading and custody flows. Coinbase remains the scale leader with diverse revenue streams; Bullish has positioned itself with a liquidity-focused, automated model; Gemini is pitching itself as a compliance-driven, exchange-plus-custody platform with payments and card services layered on.
An equity portfolio manager commented, “These companies are basically volatility derivatives with compliance premiums. If ETF flows broaden and volumes remain stable, owning a basket of exchanges finally makes sense again.”
Valuation and Financial Reality
The raised price range values Gemini around $3.0–$3.2 billion. While far smaller than Coinbase, it is not trivial for a company that reported over $280 million in first-half losses this year. The bull case rests on scaling revenue from derivatives, spot trading, and custody services, along with high-margin products like staking and settlement. Nasdaq’s investment strengthens the argument that Gemini can integrate more directly with the institutional side of markets.
MiCA vs. U.S. Rulemaking
The policy backdrop is central to investor confidence. In the United States, in-kind ETP approvals and a wave of crypto ETF launches have created stable, recurring flows that reduce regulatory uncertainty. In Europe, MiCA has provided clarity for spot markets and stablecoins, while crypto derivatives remain under MiFID II. The combination points toward a convergence: clearer rules, qualified custody, and regulated exchanges that equity investors can model with more certainty.
“MiCA brings much-needed transparency to Europe’s spot markets, but derivatives remain under the traditional securities framework,” said Sofia Dimitriou, a financial policy analyst in Brussels. “The important point is that both sides of the Atlantic are moving toward rules that allow exchanges to operate under supervision rather than in the shadows.”
Will Liquidity Migrate?
The open question is whether liquidity will shift away from offshore giants toward regulated, publicly listed venues. Offshore platforms like Binance and Bybit still control the deepest books and tightest spreads. But there are three reasons Gemini could capture share:
- ETF flows are increasingly routed through regulated custodians and exchanges, creating a natural liquidity pull.
- Institutional mandates often require trading on supervised venues, a hurdle Gemini can now clear thanks to its Nasdaq alignment.
- Retail allocation ensures visibility and broad participation, potentially strengthening brand trust.
Liquidity is path-dependent, and offshore depth will not vanish. But the equity market’s message—reflected in a raised IPO range, a strategic co-investment, and strong deal demand—suggests that listed, regulated exchanges are once again seen as viable investment vehicles.
The Bigger Picture
Gemini’s offering is more than a fundraising event. It signals the rehabilitation of crypto exchanges in the public equity markets. If the stock prices successfully, it will validate the thesis that regulated exchanges can generate durable revenues from custody, trading, and tokenization.
The listing also marks a psychological turning point. Two years after confidence in crypto equities collapsed with FTX, investors appear willing to bet again—this time on platforms that emphasize compliance, transparency, and institutional alignment.
As one EU regulator put it privately, “The lesson from 2022 was that oversight cannot be optional. If exchanges want to raise capital in public markets, they must live under the same transparency rules as everyone else.”
Whether Gemini becomes a strong competitor to Coinbase or settles into a secondary role, its IPO underscores a broader reality: crypto exchanges are no longer shunned by equity investors. They are back in the conversation, and in today’s market, that alone is a milestone.
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