What changed
“Telegram is expanding access to its crypto wallet for its 87 million users in the U.S.” — CoinDesk
“More than 100 million global users activated their wallets last year.” — TechCrunch
“Public data shows about 334,000 transactions per day on the TON blockchain.” — TechCrunch
What the data supports — and what it doesn’t
- Supported: The U.S. rollout and the 87M addressable user count. The feature set—self-custody, USDT support, swaps, staking, and mini-apps—is widely reported.
- Partially supported: How many U.S. users are actively transacting vs. merely activating wallets is not disclosed. Activation ≠ retention.
- Unknowns: Merchant adoption, in-app GMV, and the stablecoin share of transactions inside chats are not yet public. These are the real proof points for “everyday usage.”
Why this could matter
Massive reach + lower friction
Telegram’s built-in wallet eliminates a common drop-off: downloading a separate app and managing seed phrases for casual users. In certain recovery modes, users can get started without confronting full self-custody complexity, which could broaden the top of the funnel.
Stablecoins as the utility layer
USDT on TON brings “digital dollars” into the same surface where users already message and shop via mini-apps. That combination—stable value + embedded UX—could make Telegram a rare mainstream venue for crypto payments, if spreads and cash-out routes stay reasonable.
A growing builder ecosystem
Mini-apps, developer grants, and custody integrations point to more than a cosmetic wallet flip. If mini-apps make on-chain actions feel like normal mobile flows, TON may convert distribution into repeatable transactions rather than one-off experiments.
What could go wrong
- Usage vs. activations: Early spikes can fade. The key is daily/weekly active wallets, not raw installs.
- Liquidity, spreads, and fees: If swaps are costly or cash-out is clunky, users will bounce to card/bank rails.
- Regulatory friction in the U.S.: Off-ramps, KYC/AML, and fraud tooling will be scrutinized; delays could slow merchant integrations.
- Incentive burn-off: “Tap-to-earn” bursts don’t guarantee durable behavior once rewards taper.
How to track real traction (next 90 days)
- Daily/weekly active wallets in the U.S. using the in-app wallet (not just activated).
- Stablecoin share of wallet transactions vs. speculative swaps.
- Mini-app GMV and repeat-purchase rates.
- Off-ramp reliability & speed and typical consumer fees/spreads.
- User retention curves after first and fifth transactions.
Revised outlook (cautious but constructive)
- Bull case (if adoption follows): High retention, stablecoin usage in mini-apps, smooth compliance. TON becomes a daily utility venue; Toncoin benefits from sustained activity.
- Middle path: Activations grow, some merchant traction appears, but fees/liquidity or UX frictions cap usage. TON usage trends up, but not explosively.
- Risk case: Users don’t return, spreads stay wide, or compliance slows rollouts. Usage plateaus as behavior reverts to card/bank defaults.
Bottom line
The U.S. wallet rollout gives TON something most chains lack: native placement where users already spend their time. The ingredients—reach, stablecoins, and mini-apps—are real. Whether Toncoin converts that advantage into habitual on-chain activity will hinge on retention, merchant UX, and the cost/speed of moving value when no one is running a promo.